Who is the Greatest Pitcher of All Time?

In my quest to create a predictive set of baseball statistics, I’ve stumbled upon a statistic by which we can assess who is the greatest batter over the last 100 years. So far, by adjusting only for bases, outs and batter age, I have Babe Ruth in front with Ted Williams hot on his heels.Continue reading “Who is the Greatest Pitcher of All Time?”

Greatest of All Time and Still in His Prime?

6-D baseball statistics rely on 288 discrete “locations” that result from the 6 dimensions of baseball: outs, first, second and third base, balls and strikes. This is kind of a “quantum” alternative to traditional baseball statistics. In fact, I might start calling it Quantum Baseball. I’ll explain this in greater detail in a later post.Continue reading “Greatest of All Time and Still in His Prime?”

6-D Baseball and the Art of Extrapolation

In my last post, I stated that extrapolation is how we fill in gaps in the data created by the Curse of Dimensionality.  It is a blending of observation and theory, a tradeoff between accuracy and simplicity. As much art as it is science, its partial reliance on subjective judgement can make it susceptible toContinue reading “6-D Baseball and the Art of Extrapolation”

Baseball and the Curse of Dimensionality

Napoleon once said, “An army marches on its stomach”. Or was that Frederick the Great? I get my 18th century warmongers mixed up. No matter, his meaning was that the quantity and quality of food for one’s troops is of critical importance when fighting a war. In the case of the Lone Economist, the quantityContinue reading “Baseball and the Curse of Dimensionality”

Back to the Red-Zone

My last post was devoted to answering the ultimate baseball question: who was the greatest hitter? I plan to answer similar questions in the future, such as ‘who was the greatest pitcher?’ and so forth. But all of that is a side excursion from our main path, predicting what happens next in a live baseballContinue reading “Back to the Red-Zone”

The Ultimate Baseball Question

How does one assess individual production within a group activity, like manufacturing? There’s overhead and sunk costs, the law of diminishing marginal product and substitutability of labor and capital to contend with. Accountants and economists have struggled with this problem since the invention of money itself. So have baseball statisticians, which brings me to today’sContinue reading “The Ultimate Baseball Question”

The Six Dimensions of Baseball

In a previous post, I stated that goal-line sports, like football and soccer, are basically one-dimensional. The closer the ball is to the goal, the greater the chance of scoring. If I calculated the probability of scoring as a function of distance to the goal, I imagine it would look something like this: I believeContinue reading “The Six Dimensions of Baseball”

What Matters to Baseball Spectators

Productivity is measured by rates, i.e. quantities of outputs relative to quantities of inputs. So, our first step is to choose the appropriate outputs and inputs. Let’s start with the choice of outputs. For all types of prediction, there is usually one main outcome. For healthcare, it’s death. When a new cancer drug is tested,Continue reading “What Matters to Baseball Spectators”